Canadian Luxury Market Outlook 2026

Canada's luxury real estate market enters 2026 on firmer footing than many predicted. After two years of rate-driven caution, high-net-worth buyers have returned with clear priorities: turnkey quality, privacy and long-term liveability. Across our offices in Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal and Calgary, the number of qualified private viewings rose 22% year over year, and the share of all-cash transactions above $5 million USD reached its highest level since 2021.

Supply remains the defining constraint

The single most important factor in the top tier is scarcity. Genuinely finished luxury inventory — homes that need no renovation and offer contemporary systems, generous ceiling heights and thoughtful outdoor space — remains extremely limited. In Yorkville and Rosedale, fewer than 40 freehold homes above $4 million USD changed hands in the past twelve months. In West Vancouver's British Properties, active listings in that bracket rarely exceed two dozen at any given time.

This shortage underpins pricing. Even as the broader market softened, well-presented prime homes held their value, and the best properties continued to attract multiple serious buyers.

Penthouses: the most liquid segment

Full-floor and two-level penthouses above 4,000 sq ft are currently the most liquid product we represent. Correctly priced, they typically sell within 90 days. Buyers are drawn to the lock-and-leave lifestyle, concierge services and private elevator access — particularly executives and families who split time between Canada and abroad.

Waterfront continues to command a premium

Waterfront properties in Muskoka, on the shores of Lake Ontario and along the West Vancouver coast continue to command premiums of 25–40% over comparable inland homes. Buyers increasingly view these properties as multi-generational assets rather than seasonal retreats, and year-round usability — heated boathouses, winterised guest cottages, reliable internet — has become a decisive factor.

What this means for buyers

Preparation wins. The most desirable homes are often sold privately before reaching the open market, so registering detailed criteria with a trusted advisor matters more than ever. We recommend securing financing pre-approval, defining non-negotiables early and being ready to move decisively when the right property appears.

What this means for sellers

Presentation and pricing remain everything. Homes marketed with architectural photography, cinematic film and a carefully staged private preview consistently outperform. Overpricing in the current market leads to longer days on market and, ultimately, lower outcomes.

Our outlook

We expect modest appreciation of 3–5% across Canada's prime neighbourhoods in 2026, with stronger performance in waterfront and penthouse segments. As always, every property and every client is different — we would be pleased to prepare a confidential market assessment tailored to your goals.